Verification

With Indiana experiencing pretty quiet weather the last few days, I decided to concentrate my efforts on the southeast and the development of this severe ice storm. Since this storm is still occurring and currently located in Georgia, I decided to focus primarily in the area extending from eastern Texas to Western Georgia for yesterday afternoon and extending into this morning. I looked at the 12Z model runs that ran on February 9th to observe how accurately the models predicted the weather. 

This system is particularly hazardous due to its high threat of freezing rain and sleet. Both the GFS and the NAM showed some strong precipitation moving into the southeast, however the timings for the two varied slightly. The NAM had the system reaching its peak in Alabama Tuesday afternoon while the GFS had it arrive slightly later, around Tuesday evening. The total amounts also varied, and can be seen below.
Compare this to the actual amount obtained from the National Weather Service.
Overall, they did a pretty good job, the amounts are close to the amounts recorded and they did a good job picking up where the heaviest precipitation could be expected (especially the NAM, it did a very good job picking up where the heaviest precipitation could be expected). Not only did the models do a good job predicting the amounts of precipitation, they also did a rather good job showing what type of precipitation could be expected (the model soundings especially revealed that freezing rain would occur in these areas). Looking at the critical thicknesses, it was estimated that freezing rain/sleet would occur stretching from the northern tip of Louisiana through the northern third of both Alabama, Mississippi, and Georgia. The Local Storm Reports reflect this quite well, seen below.


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