Feb 13th - 1pm Discussion

posted Feb 13, 2014, 10:01 AM by Unknown user   [ updated Feb 13, 2014, 10:06 AM by Michael Baldwin ]

Looking at a surface analysis, we can see a surface low pressure system to our Northwest with an associated shortwave aloft at 500mb. This puts us in the warm sector of the system, meaning that a high of 30 today is certainly not out of the question. Note the current progression of this low is on a direct collision course with the nor'easter currently forming along the southern Atlantic coast.  

Current radar analysis also shows weak returns of 15dBz over Illinois moving our direction. Not too worried about current forecast as surface stations not reporting any precip on the ground. However, we currently are not mentioning any precip and I think we are under forecasting cloud cover with current partly cloudy forecast.

For tomorrow (Friday) into this weekend, we get a short blast of cold air from a decent surface high (about 1020mb) before a weak clipper system moves in late Saturday (00z-03z Sunday). GFS seems to be the outlier here as it takes the surface mesolow further north than all the NAM, EURO, RPM 12km runs. At this point, guidance supports better chance of snow rather than rain as 700mb-surface temps look to be below freezing.

Long range guidance (next Monday – Thursday) continues to support upper level flow returning to a more zonal pattern with few short wave systems progressing through. This should allow for some increased surface warming next week! WOO! Quick note, EURO and GFS both hint at a big disturbance rolling in late next week (images attached). Positioning is still way off, I just enjoying dreaming. Will continue to analyze next runs.

JB

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Michael Baldwin,
Feb 13, 2014, 10:03 AM
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Michael Baldwin,
Feb 13, 2014, 10:04 AM
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