Feb 19th-10pm Update

posted Feb 19, 2014, 6:59 PM by Unknown user   [ updated Feb 19, 2014, 7:04 PM by Michael Baldwin ]
A deepening, strengthening low pressure system will move out plains Thursday and track northward through the western Great Lakes during the day Thursday. The NAM, GFS, and ECMWF are all in fairly good agreement over the track of the low pressure tomorrow. With that being said, a warm front will move the area tomorrow morning and produce a chance for scattered showers and a few thunderstorms after 6am tomorrow. With a strong low level jet in place tomorrow, a strong warm air advection will occur before the cold front arrives Thursday night. This warm air advection will allow for unseasonably warm temperatures to overspread the area with highs in thee upper 50's to low 60's by the late afternoon. The approaching cold front and unseasonably warm temperatures is expected to trigger a squall line of thunderstorms during the late afternoon and early evening hours Thursday. A few of these storms may be severe with damaging wind gust being the primary threat. The cold front will sweep through behind the squall line and this will be followed by strong gusty winds. Winds gusts may exceed 50mph at times Thursday evening. Thinking that flooding will also be concern Thursday as the rate of snow melt will increase due to warmer temperatures and rain. Rainfall totals may approach 1" by the time system exits late Thursday.

Friday should remain dry and breezy. Highs may reach the lower 40's. A few disturbances this weekend will bring a chance for a few snow showers followed by colder than normal temperatures again for next week.

Tyler Heckstall
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