Jan 30 - 11pm update

posted Jan 30, 2014, 7:47 PM by Michael Baldwin   [ updated Jan 30, 2014, 7:55 PM ]
appears that guidance has trended warmer for Saturday, 00Z and 21Z SREF showing basically all rain, MOS temps are getting into upper 30s lower 40s, so going with a faster transition from snow to freezing rain to rain Friday night.  snowfall accumulations are tricky prior to this transition, given north-south temperature gradient there should be higher accumulations in the northern portion of the listening area, that is a tough thing to put into the forecast, so comments were added to the headline.  too much uncertainty remains for next week's storm, so I went with "rain or snow likely", typically with a strong storm like the one predicted for next Tue/Wed there is a rapid transition from heavy snow to rain over a short distance, GEFS ensemble has the low track all over the place, so I think that is as brief a statement about the uncertainty as I can come up with for WBAA