severe potential for Sunday afternoon

posted Nov 16, 2013, 11:28 AM by Michael Baldwin   [ updated Nov 16, 2013, 11:28 AM ]
You should read the IND AFD.  You should read the SPC Day 2 outlook (written by Steve Weiss, SPC's SOO, and one of the best forecasters I've ever met)  You should check out the 12Z WRF.  It looks like it is initiating isolated supercells ahead of the cold front.  SPC Day 2 outlook indicates that other hi-res NWP models are also initiating convection ahead of the front.  If that actually occurs (convective initiation ahead of the front), the ingredients will be in place to produce very strong rotation, potential for significant, long-track tornados.  Storm motions will probably be around 60 mph, making these very likely to seem to "appear without warning".  We need to raise the "warning flags" as much as possible today, making sure that people pay close attention to the weather tomorrow afternoon and be prepared to react when warnings are issued.  Please note that I don't advise trying to "chase" these storms.  With rapid storm motions, potential for large hail, and relatively low cloud bases, these storms will be extremely difficult to react to in order to get into safe positions.  I'm not kidding, this is coming from someone who "was there" on May 31, 2013 for the El Reno, OK storm (about 5 miles south, launching balloons for MPEX).  If you don't know what I'm referring to, then you REALLY shouldn't try to chase these storms...