17 Oct KBIL forecast

posted Oct 17, 2012, 2:42 PM by Michael Baldwin   [ updated Oct 17, 2012, 2:42 PM ]
missed the past couple of days, too much going on to post a discussion, looks like everyone's doing fine without these discussions
problems of the day: min temp and max wind
current obs/satellite showing strong winds continuing today with pressure gradient relaxing to the west of KBIL, some broken clouds across the region, temps in the 50s with dewpoints in the 10s.  min temp tonight is tricky, guidance generally showing lower 30s, but NAM meteogram is getting them down into the mid 20s.  15-20kt winds are predicted to continue past midnight, then decrease towards morning, the enhanced mixing should prevent great radiative cooling, but the NAM is saying they could drop down into the 20s towards sunrise as the pressure gradient slackens and winds die down below 10kt.  not a lot of change is predicted for max temps tomorrow when compared to today, thicknesses are predicted to increase slightly, but with weaker downslope flow I don't expect a lot of change at the surface, so something close to persistence should be fine.  precip is not an issue.  max wind speed could occur around midnight while the stronger pressure gradient remains in place, or during the afternoon tomorrow when the boundary layer mixing could bring some of the ~20kt momentum from the top of the PBL down near the surface. Either way, the max winds will be considerably lighter tomorrow compared with today.  My prediction of consensus is 54/31/20kt/0.00" (basically the NWS forecast and very close to NAM MOS) with a sharper distribution than we've been seeing lately, not as much opportunity to gain ground/separate from the pack with today's forecast.
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