18 Oct KBIL forecast

posted Oct 18, 2012, 2:37 PM by Michael Baldwin   [ updated Oct 18, 2012, 2:37 PM ]
current obs/SPC mesoanalysis showing sunny skies and light winds this afternoon in the wake of the strong, vertically-stacked system that has moved east towards WI, ridge building aloft and weak warm advection currently found at 850mb.  Next shortwave trough is expected to move north of MT, with pressure falls and an increase in the pressure gradient, expecting winds to pick up again tomorrow afternoon (although certainly not as much as earlier this week).  A decent warm up is expected with winds out of the southwest and thicknesses/850 temp increases consistent with a 12-15 deg F increase in max temp, the NAM forecast soundings are showing some moisture aloft in the afternoon, so those high clouds will likely prevent them from hitting 70 tomorrow, so upper 60s sound reasonable to me.  The min temp tonight will likely be affected again by momentum and mixing with the winds predicted to remain around 10 kts overnight, the general warmup compared to yesterday should result in a min temp that is several degrees warmer than this morning, the guidance is saying upper 30s and that also sounds reasonable to me.  Forecast soundings showing well-mixed PBL about 1km deep, hitting a weak inversion at 800mb with nearly dry-adiabatic lapse rates to 650mb above that inversion.  There's about 20kt of momentum that could/should mix down to the surface tomorrow afternoon, won't be surprised to see gusts to 25kt so the max sustained wind will likely be somewhere in between.  Precip is not an issue.  I'm thinking consensus will be very close to the current NWS forecast of 69/40/20kt/0.00", not expecting a lot of spread, so it will be tough to gain ground again tomorrow as we wrap up our forecasts for Billings, MT!  Louisville is next, will we have any "home court advantage"???
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