1 Oct KPNS forecast

posted Oct 1, 2012, 3:38 PM by Michael Baldwin   [ updated Oct 1, 2012, 3:42 PM ]
current sfc obs and SPC mesoanalysis showing a cold front getting ready to pass through the FL panhandle. temps are only in the 60's under the stratus over Mississippi. model guidance indicates dewpoints should drop into the 50's overnight at KPNS, while low clouds and west/northwest winds will prevent full radiational cooling, temps are already cool in the airmass behind the front, so low 60's for a min temp seems quite reasonable with  5-10 kts of flow continuing off the land overnight. upper 50's are not out of the question, could see stratus break up late in the overnight to aid in the cooling.  forcing for rising motion will remain north and east of the surface cyclone that is heading our way, drier air predicted to move in aloft as well, expecting plently of sun tomorrow to allow nearly adiabatic lapse rate between the sfc and 850 with a predicted temp at 850 of 10-11C, max temps around 25-26C (upper 70's) seem reasonable to me. this well-mixed boundary layer should allow for some decent mixing of momentum, so max winds in the 10-12kt range look good, i am leaning towards the high end of that range. POPs are low, not expecting precip to be an issue for tomorrow. again, with guidance numbers clustered together, expect a sharp distribution for the forecast parameters, staying close to consensus will be a good strategy, min temps and max wind look to be the toughest parts of the forecast today.
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