23 Oct KSDF forecast

posted Oct 23, 2012, 2:16 PM by Michael Baldwin   [ updated Oct 23, 2012, 2:18 PM ]
similar story to yesterday, moist air is still to the north and west of KSDF, remnants of MCS are heading their way, but diminishing as the afternoon continues.  last night's 00Z Purdue WRF looks to have a very good handle on this (12Z is still sitting in the queue) as does the 12Z NAM.  main difference between today's forecast and yesterday's is there is no vort max heading their way tomorrow.  models show ridging overnight in the wake of the short-wave trough that is almost overhead.  with dewpoints currently in the upper 40s (!), they could radiate a few degrees cooler than they did this morning, tricky aspect of the min temp forecast is what will happen with what's left of the convection that has been heading their way all day.  I'm expecting some cloud cover early tonight, then clearing, so decent radiative cooling potential.  Dewpoints could rise as the convective remains pass by. Mid/upper 50s look good to me (similar to GFS MOS: 56 and current NWS: 57). Main question for max temp is: will they break their record (82)?  I think a tie is a good bet for tomorrow, thickness edges up slightly tomorrow, plus full sun should add a degree or two to today's maximum.  Guidance is showing low 80s, current NWS forecast is 82, that sounds like a good number to me.  Winds are predicted to be slightly weaker tomorrow, NAM meteogram not showing much potential for momentum mixing, so I'm thinking of something in the 10-12kt range.  Without any forcing for lift, precip does not appear to be an issue.  My prediction for consensus is 82/58/10/0.00", the min temp is the trickiest aspect of this forecast in my opinion, so I expect there to be more spread for that number than the others, but another day of relatively "sharp" forecast distributions.  Tomorrow will be a similar story (tempted to copy/paste this discussion, will anyone notice? go ahead and enter identical numbers for the day 2 forecast...maybe a couple more kts of wind), so we'll have to wait for Thursday's forecast (of Friday's cold FROPA) for the next opportunity for precip, tricky temp forecasts, and some strong winds