2 Oct KPNS forecast

posted Oct 2, 2012, 2:29 PM by Michael Baldwin   [ updated Oct 2, 2012, 2:29 PM ]
main challenge today is min temp.  obs and SPC mesoanalysis shows low stratus moved out of the region earlier today allowing them to warm up nicely and get some cu development as currently found in the visible satellite image.  KPNS has been in a region of weak cold/dry advection near the surface, the axis of coldest temps at 925mb is just to their west as of 21Z this afternoon. strong anticyclone situated over the Atlantic to the east of FL looks to be blocking any eastward progress of the trough at 500mb that is located just to their west, model forecast brings that trough mainly to the north during the day tomorrow, getting a nice kick from the approaching short-wave system in the northern stream that is diving down the east side of the huge ridge over the Gulf of Alaska.  Again, not a lot of changes are expected between today and tomorrow, dewpoints are predicted to remain upper 50s/near 60 overnight, with light winds (to continue out of the north and west) and clear skies, good radiational cooling should be expected, so a low in the lower 60's seems reasonable.  Upper 50s are also not out of the question.  Dry air aloft remains in place during the forecast period, so again I'm expecting good shallow cu to develop during the day tomorrow with a few rainy/deep convective showers moving in from over the Gulf at a few scattered locations in the FL panhandle, 10% POP numbers in guidance and NWS look good to me.  Since the coolest air will be moving out of the area, expecting max temps to be a few degrees warmer than today, 850 temps are predicted by 18Z NAM to be 1-2 C warmer tomorrow, so 3-4 F increase from today would put them in the low 80s.  With the pressure gradient weakening, I'm expecting the max wind to be a few kts lower tomorrow, not much opportunity for a sea breeze with water temps also in the lower 80s. looking out for the next couple of days, it's going to be very difficult to gain ground in the contest with persistent conditions, unless the airport happens to get hit by a stray shower.  if you're not happy with your score for KPNS, keep forecasting, don't worry about your score since you get to drop the worst city of the 5 in each semester, and look forward to doing well in the next city (Billings MT)