S & M

90hr precip
strong WAA but PVA comes a few hours later. Sounding does not support large snow ratio because of large evaporation layer from 400 mb to 650 mb.

next 6 hrs... not enough ice nucliation above -10 degrees C, therefore mostly freezing drizzle

GEMPAK WAA calulations

values at 2 e -4  for gempak.  Calculated values: 3.5 e-4 which is larger than gempak was caluclating! 1.3 C/hr!!!