Archive‎ > ‎EAS 434 - Spring 2011‎ > ‎short-range‎ > ‎

Short Range Forecast 8 Feb 2011

Forecast updated 1:00pm EST - 8 Feb 2011

The next main precipitation even to approach our area will be Wednesday.  As you can see, there is plenty of winter precipitation in Texas, Oklahoma, and the surrounding areas, but little or none reaching Indiana. 


This is made slightly more puzzling by the swath of vorticity above Central Indiana at the time.


Keeping these things in mind, and the components of the Q-G omega equation, in order to have vertical motion the net effect of vorticity and temperature advection need to be positive.  This picture shows that the temperature advection at 850mb is cold air advection, or no advection at the time leading up to this.


Thus, it can be seen that the omega values are negligable to nothing around Indiana.


If conditions change, there could be a small amount of precipitation occuring across Indiana.  There would need to be higher RH values, and warm air advection to cause precipitation to occur in sizeable quantities.

Today's short-range forecast graphic was produced by Aaron Hurley and Brian Doogs.

Comments