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19 January Verification

Forecast verification updated 2:00pm EST - 19 Jan 2011

The first image below is the 24-hour prediction by the 18Z GFS model that was produced on January 18.  This specific model predicted that the bulk of the precipitation would move through the central portion of the country by 3:00pm this afternoon.  This prediction was correct and is confirmed by the current radar (2:29pm), which is the last image at the bottom of this page. 

The NAM model, which was produced at the same time as the GFS, also showed the bulk of the precipitaion move through the lower midwest, confirming that the system is on-track with the model predictions.

It does seem that the precipitation is falling a little bit farther south of where the models predicted.  Northern Oklahoma had light precipitation move through earlier today, and both models predicted the models would stay north of the state line.  Other than this minor difference, both models seem to be handling this system well.

today's forecast verification graphic was produced by Matt Rudkin & Erik Larson







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