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Dec 7 forecast discussion

posted Dec 7, 2015, 7:32 AM by Michael Baldwin   [ updated Dec 7, 2015, 7:32 AM ]

we are expecting an extended period of warm weather for this week, with no wintry weather expected. the main forecast issue continues to be the development of dense fog, with the warm air aloft causing an inversion, this often results in stagnant air near the surface and results in fog development during the morning and stratocu during the afternoon. temperatures often end up much cooler than expected during these events. I think the NAM (and especially the WRF) have had a better handle on this lately when compared to the GFS or Euro.

Monday: dense morning fog will likely lead to overcast conditions through most of the day, with temperatures remaining in the 30s for most of the day

Monday night: WRF and NAM are indicating dense fog will develop quickly after sunset. surface temperatures are predicted to remain above freezing, so freezing fog is not expected to be an issue, although elevated surfaces will cool faster and might result in some freezing conditions on bridges and overpasses

Tuesday: winds are predicted to increase out of the south/southwest which should help to mix out the fog and low stratus, but the models have had a difficult time dealing with this, so we will need to keep a close eye on the cloudiness, more clouds will result in cooler max temps than guidance is showing

Wednesday: upper-level/surface low pressure system moves through from the west bringing some light rain across most of the state, mainly during the daytime hours. temperatures are predicted to be well above freezing, so no winter weather issues are expected

Thursday: southerly flow is predicted to pick up again, main forecast issue will be morning fog development following Wednesday's precip. a weak cold front is predicted to move through Thurs night on the Euro

Friday: a weak ridge is predicted Friday morning, followed by a surge of moisture. morning fog/stratus will continue to be a forecast question for Friday

Saturday/Sunday: uncertainty is large at this range. Euro shows a strong storm/cold front moving through in the Sunday-Monday timeframe, while GFS brings that through on Saturday-Sunday. will probably see max temperatures near record territory on the warm side of this system, also may see a severe weather outbreak in the warm sector of this low. might have some light snow in the wake of this strong cold front, too much uncertainty at this point to have any confidence in that forecast.

video forecast discussion

YouTube Video

poster sent to us by alumni Daniel Burgin

posted Nov 20, 2015, 12:42 PM by Michael Baldwin   [ updated Nov 20, 2015, 12:42 PM ]

interesting poster about traffic accidents and winter weather, see attached pdf

Nov 18 meeting - road temps and snow forecast

posted Nov 18, 2015, 6:13 PM by Michael Baldwin   [ updated Nov 18, 2015, 6:13 PM ]

YouTube Video

internship opportunity at Hobart College

posted Nov 13, 2015, 1:46 PM by Michael Baldwin   [ updated Nov 13, 2015, 1:46 PM ]

see attached pdf file

internship opportunity at PCCRC

posted Nov 13, 2015, 1:31 PM by Michael Baldwin   [ updated Nov 13, 2015, 1:31 PM ]

this sounds like a great opportunity, please let Dr. Baldwin know if you have any questions about this


alumni chat with Joe Bauer

posted Nov 13, 2015, 7:31 AM by Michael Baldwin   [ updated Nov 13, 2015, 7:31 AM ]

YouTube Video

alumni chat with Alyssa Hendricks

posted Nov 13, 2015, 7:29 AM by Michael Baldwin   [ updated Nov 13, 2015, 7:29 AM ]

YouTube Video

winter precipitation type forecasting

posted Nov 10, 2015, 8:25 AM by Michael Baldwin   [ updated Nov 10, 2015, 12:09 PM ]

YouTube Video

see winter_precip_type.ex.pdf for exercise

planning a field trip to INDOT in January

posted Nov 6, 2015, 8:29 AM by Michael Baldwin   [ updated Nov 6, 2015, 8:29 AM ]

we will visit the INDOT Traffic Management Center (TMC) and might also go to the Indy Subdistrict to see winter operations in person
looking at the week of Jan 18 2016, more details to come
here are some pictures from JTRP of other agencies that visited INDOT


Nov 4 meeting - BUFKIT and proposed team forecasting tasks

posted Nov 4, 2015, 5:47 PM by Michael Baldwin   [ updated Nov 4, 2015, 5:52 PM ]

YouTube Video

NOFEAR forecasting tasks

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