Krista's weather blog

As Everyone Packs Up and Clears Out Their Dorms, Finals Week Will Close With Some Thunderstorms.

posted May 6, 2015, 8:36 PM by Krista McEnany   [ updated May 6, 2015, 8:36 PM by Michael Baldwin ]

High pressure has been providing us with some beautiful sunny skies while we have been enjoying the warm weather these past several days.  We can expect mostly sunny skies tomorrow as we head to our afternoon high temperature in the mid 80s.  Lower pressure will move into the Lafayette area throughout the evening on Thursday, which will bring us the chance for some thunderstorms by Friday afternoon. 

The stationary front off to the east will linger in the area and provide us with wet weather and some thunderstorms throughout the remainder of the weekend. 

As of right now, we are not expecting these storms to be severe, and the greater threat of severe weather will remain mostly concentrated off to the west of Indiana for the weekend.

Rain showers will continue into Monday as a cold front passes through, dropping the high temperatures for the middle of next week into the mid to upper 60s.  


What will the Weather Bring in this Second Week of Spring?

posted Mar 31, 2015, 4:51 AM by Krista McEnany   [ updated Mar 31, 2015, 4:51 AM by Michael Baldwin ]

After seeing some snow at the end of last week, I know we were all grateful to be rewarded with some warmer weather at the start of this week.  Fortunately, it looks like these temperatures are going to stick around with us a little longer.  High pressure passing through the area will give way to sunny skies today with a high in the upper 50s.  Strong northwest winds persist throughout the afternoon and we may see wind gusts in excess of 20 mph.  Winds will begin to calm down by the early evening as we head towards our overnight low in the upper 30s.  

We can expect similar conditions during the daytime tomorrow, with sunny skies and highs in the lower 60s.  However, a frontal system passing through late Wednesday night will bring us the chance for some rain and thunderstorms.  

Temperatures will continue to climb to the upper 60s by Thursday afternoon, but this warmer weather will likely be accompanied by thunderstorms throughout the day on Thursday.  

Rain showers are likely to continue into Friday afternoon before our next high-pressure system pushes its way through.  This system comes just in time to clear the skies out for the weekend, where we can expect calm and sunny conditions, with high temperatures in the mid 50s.

The High Temperature May Sound Nice but it Follows Lots of Ice!

posted Mar 2, 2015, 10:55 PM by Krista McEnany   [ updated Mar 2, 2015, 10:55 PM by Michael Baldwin ]

Caution should be taken by all those traveling on the roads and sidewalks on Tuesday, March 3rd.  An ice accumulation near 0.1 inch is possible during the morning as the next low pressure system moves in. Precipitation will arrive in our area near 4am Tuesday morning.  This will first come in the form of freezing rain and sleet during the morning hours.  Surface temperatures in the morning will be below freezing but warmer air aloft between the 750-900 mb level will be above freezing.  This melting layer will allow any moisture to fall as rain and then freeze on contact when it reaches the surface.  This condition is expected to persist until around noon when surface temperatures will rise above the freezing level. As temperatures begin to rise, freezing rain will transfer over to rain throughout the afternoon.  Winds out of the south will bring warmer temperatures in the afternoon.  High temperatures in the upper 30s are expected by tomorrow afternnon. The combination of these higher temperatures and rain will create optimal conditions for significant melting of the current snowpack.  As ice accumulation concerns decrease after 12pm, the threat of flooded roadways and sidewalks will increase throughout the remainder of the daytime hours.   Temperatures will begin to make their decline, back to bitter cold temperatures for the next several days, beginning around 5pm on Tuesday.  Temperatures are looking to drop back below freezing after 11pm Tuesday evening.  Any lingering precipitation is expected to transfer from rain to sleet to snow as these temperatures begin to drop throughout the remainder of the evening.   High pressure returns to the area on Wednesday and skies will slowly begin to clear as we progress into Thursday.  This high pressure will dominate the region on Thursday as it continues to push off to the east through Thursday evening into Friday.  Current forecast temperatures over Wednesday and Thursday are approaching record lows.  Models are currently indicating that low temperatures on Wednesday, March 4th will be near 6 or 7 degrees. The record low temperature of 6 degrees for March 4th was recorded in 1978.  Models are currently indication that temperatures on Thursday, March 5th will be near 0 degrees. The record low temperature of -2 degrees was recorded on March 5th, 1978.

Currently, the 500mb and 850mb GFS are showing dry conditions but moisture pushing in from the SW will raise relative humidity to near 100% after 3am.  500mb GFS also shows a significant increase in vertical velocity and vorticity after 4am on Tuesday morning.  850mb temperature advection shows WAA starting around 3Z and strengthening by 9Z.  WAA advection will dominate Indiana throughout the day before CAA returns late Tuesday night.

At the surface, we can see low pressure moving in from the NW throughout the day on Tuesday.  Models show a tight pressure gradient across our region as the low pressure system passes over us.  Increased wind speeds can be expected tomorrow with wind gusts near 25mph. High pressure will begin to move back in Wednesday morning and will bring us clear skies but cooler temperatures once again. 

Have Some Hot Cocoa Before the Cold Weather Drives You Loco!

posted Feb 16, 2015, 8:55 PM by Krista McEnany   [ updated Feb 16, 2015, 8:57 PM by Michael Baldwin ]

WSW winds will keep temperatures in the upper teens tomorrow before temperatures significantly decline for the middle of the week.  Looking at the 250mb winds, we can see an upper-level trough moving over the region Tuesday night that will be accompanied by much colder temperatures.  

Lows on Tuesday are expected to be in the lower single digits, while lows on Wednesday are likely to reach subzero temperatures between -3 to -8 degrees.  Winds will be shifting to NW by Tuesday night and will strengthen Wednesday morning through the afternoon. The jet streak curvature at 500mb 00Z on Wednesday suggests that we will be in a divergence zone that could provide us with enough forcing for some light snow showers Tuesday night through Wednesday morning.  The 15-21Z GFS shows a tightening pressure gradient as the surface low pushes off to the NE and an incoming high-pressure system slides in from the NW. We can expect that wind speeds will pick up even more on Wednesday.  Winds will approach 20mph in the afternoon with wind gusts near 30mph.  These bitter cold temperatures will coexist with dangerous wind chills near -10 on Tuesday and -20 on Wednesday. The high pressure moving in Wednesday night will bring clear skies and keep us at a blustery high temperature between 5 and 7 degrees on Thursday, with a low between -1 to -3.

As the surface high passes to our southeast on Friday, it is interesting to note that the 12Z NAM and GFS are showing the center of this high pressure to cross over central Kentucky. This could bring them temperatures near -18 degrees, according to NAM and near -30 degrees, according to GFS. As this system continues to move on, we will shift to SE flow on Friday afternoon and SW flow by early Saturday morning.  We will begin to see temperatures start to climb back to the lower teens by Friday and into the lower 30s by Saturday.  However, this warm front that will be approaching from the south could bring us enough lift to see some snow showers for the weekend. 

Be Sure to Dress in Layers for a Cold Blast of Arctic Air!

posted Feb 9, 2015, 8:47 PM by Krista McEnany   [ updated Feb 9, 2015, 8:49 PM by Michael Baldwin ]

An area of high pressure will continue to move into the region throughout tomorrow afternoon, clearing out the skies before another shortwave begins to move in Tuesday night into Wednesday.  A slight chance of snow Wednesday evening is a possibility but no significant accumulations are to be expected. Strong high pressure and bitter cold temperatures will move in behind this system Wednesday night and produce strong winds through the evening hours Wednesday.  Wind gusts near 25mph can be expected.  This blast of arctic air will linger with us through most of the weekend, leaving high temperatures near the upper teens/lower 20s and low temperatures in the single digits before southwesterly flow returns at the start of the work week. This will bring us more bearable weather conditions as the current GFS model shows us climbing up into the lower 30s on Monday.

A No-show for Heavy Snow...

posted Feb 2, 2015, 8:43 PM by Krista McEnany   [ updated Feb 2, 2015, 8:43 PM by Michael Baldwin ]

Not as much snowfall accumulated in the area as originally forecast over the weekend.  A range of 3"-5" snow accumulation occurred across the Lafayette area.  The low ended up tracking further north than models had previously indicated.  High snowfall accumulations occurred in the northern part of the state while Lafayette and central Indiana experienced slightly warmer temperatures and a mix of snow and rain throughout the weekend.  As expected, high pressure and northerly winds moved into the region overnight and into Monday, bringing low temperatures for the start of the work week. 

Southwest winds tomorrow will help temperatures climb into the lowers 30s with the approaching warm front that will leave us with a slight chance for flurries Tuesday.

Both GFS and NAM show a strong jet streak at the 500mb level for Wednesday evening as another upper level shortwave moves through during the afternoon into the evening.  PVA over the area during this time could provide us with enough lift to see some snow showers Wednesday afternoon and evening.  High pressure moving in late Wednesday night will clear the skies for Thursday and Friday as cold north-west air returns and temperatures will dip into the single digits for Thursday. 

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