FORECAST UPDATED: 4:30 pm Friday, Nov 20, 2015 by Mike Baldwin (firstname.lastname@example.org)
We are expecting the first winter storm of the season to move across the state tomorrow, as a surface low is expected to track from southwest to northeast across the southern portion of the state during the day on Saturday. The main area of precipitation is expected to enter the western portion of the state at around 3am and spread across the state during the morning hours. The bulk of the precipitation should continue throughout the daytime hours, exiting the eastern counties at around 7pm in the evening. While temperatures aloft are predicted to be cold enough for this precipitation to fall as snow, temperatures near the surface are expected to remain above freezing, especially areas south of I-70. To the north of I-70, surface temperatures are predicted to remain slightly above freezing for most of the day, which should result in snow that is melting before reaching the ground, or melting on contact. Expect snow to accumulate mainly on grassy and elevated surfaces, with generally minor daytime accumulation on road surfaces. An area of heavier snowfall is expected to move through just to the northwest of the surface low pressure system, starting north of Terre Haute during the morning hours, moving into the Kokomo area by midday, and into the Fort Wayne area by mid-afternoon. Snow is expected to accumulate faster in these areas as the snowfall will exceed the melting rate during the heavier snowfall. As the storm moves off to our northeast later in the afternoon, much colder air is predicted to move into the area. Winds are also predicted to pick up during the late afternoon, while blowing snow is not expected, wind-driven snowfall will reduce visibility and produce hazardous driving conditions. Lake-enhanced snow showers are expected for several hours along the northern tier of counties, with some snow squalls along and north of U.S. 24 that will produce some additional accumulation on road surfaces.
The map below indicates expected storm-total snow accumulations across the state for this event. Areas along and near I-70 should see 1” of accumulation, 2-3” between I-70 and U.S. 24, 3-6” between U.S. 24 and I-80, with 6-8” accumulations along the northern tier of counties. More accumulation is expected on elevated surfaces, warm surface temperatures should assist with melting throughout the daytime hours.
Air temperatures on Sunday in regions with new snowfall are predicted to remain below freezing, although plenty of sunshine is expected to melt Saturday's accumulated snow. A warming trend is predicted for next week. After Saturday's storm passes, no winter weather is expected through Thanksgiving Day.
(image source: Weather Prediction Center NWS/NCEP)