short range forecast

Above are the upper air maps that I started looking at for Friday morning Nov 7 at 6 am EST. There seems to be strong jet streaks in the upper atmosphere making it favorable for precipitation in the left exit region of the streak. I then set up a map with the projected precip and the thickness.

We can see there is heavy precipitation expected on the east side of the vort. max of the low. We can also see that the 540 thickness line dips into some of this precipitation that is expected on the east coast. This is potential for snow flurries in the north east of the United States.

The vorticity is showing lots of positive forcing on the east side of the low where the heaviest chances of precipitation are. There is also strong negative forcing where the air is colder. I looked at the temperature advection to see if the negative forcing was in correlation with cold air advection in there seems to be cold air advection on the side of the low where there is expected snow flurries and the warm air advection on the strongest precip line.

Looking at frontogenesis at the 850 mb height, we can see slight positive forcing on the strongest band region also. If I were looking at a higher level I think it would have shown up with stronger and more prevalent forcing. This matches all of the other model runs in regard to the where the strongest precip will be in regards to the low that is on the east coast on Friday morning.

Chelsea