verification web prod

created 26 Feb 2014 by Matt Schall

Northern California was forecasted to receive rain starting Wednesday afternoon with heavy rain starting late Wednesday night and into Thursday and Friday. However the precipitation seems to have come in a little early than expected with several stations reporting rain this morning. By 8:43 local time, The San Francisco station reported 0.11" of rain and looking at radar and visible satellite, the area will likely see more rain as the day continues.

www.weather.rap.ucar.edu

www.weather.gov

www.goes.noaa.gov

Model runs from Feb 24th 12Z were showing QPF accumulation values ranging from 0.4” - 0.8” by 1:00 AM local time Thursday (Feb 25th 06Z). 24 hrs later (Feb 25th 12Z), the model runs increased the QPF accumulation values to 0.7” - 0.9” with a 06Z NAM run being a large outlier showing 1.5”. Both days of the model runs were indicating precipitation starting on Wednesday at 1:00 pm local time (Feb 26th 18Z)

The short term forecast provided 2 days out (Feb 24) by Purdue students was not quite accurate on the timing of the event. It was forecasted to arrive Thursday night as opposed to Wednesday afternoon. However the forecasted QPF accumulation of 1.01” may prove to be fairly accurate.