Long-Range

After the system moves through on Tuesday and Wednesday a high will settle in bringing calmer conditions for the next few days. A region of cyclogenesis, starting Friday, will will create a low pressure system in the west, which will make its way east throughout the weekend. The model tracks of the aforementioned low are seen in the figure below. Models tend to be in agreement, showing the track bending south over Texas and into the deep south before turning north again and either riding along the east coast or moving farther offshore. An upper-level low associated with positive vorticity advection, also aloft, could bring some light snow accumulations to the Midwest and Northeast over the weekend; models are not in agreement as much for snow totals showing a range of 0-4"+. As the surface low matures and moves farther east, the upper level vorticity lines up vertically.

Figure 1: Showing the model tracks of the low moving east. The area of initial cyclogenesis is show by the red 'L' and then various model tracks are seen with the different colored lines. JMA (red), ECMWF (light blue), NAVGEM (yellow), GEM (green), and GFS (orange). An area of potential snow is shown in the shaded cream color over the Midwest and Northeast.