Yesterday's forecast for Indiana, based off the models, were fairly spot on. The GFS, NAM, and RUC models at the 12z yesterday, all had cold air advection over some parts of the state. This explains why we had a really cold night. Also, the models showed at 12z at the 850mb level, the temperatures and winds were bringing down colder air into the state. Again, this explains why we had such a cold night and morning. The models at 12z also predicted that the winds would be coming out of the West /Southwest and by looking at the current observations, the winds are indeed coming from the West/ Southwest.
Looking at National Weather Service weather discussions from yesterday, they predicted that temperatures would be colder than what the MOS and model data were showing at around 12z for yesterday's run. Their forecast was correct because our low temperature here in Lafayette/ West Lafayette got down to -11 degrees F this morning and the models were predicting temperatures around -5 degrees F, a 6 degree difference. The rest of their forecast agrees with what the models said yesterday at 12z, which was cold and mostly sunny.