Gino Recchia INDOT ex. Forecast

FORECAST UPDATED: 1:15 pm EST Thursday January 16, 2014 by Gino Recchia (grecchia@purdue.edu)

Forecast Summary (statewide)

The Saskatchewan Screamer continues to howl over Indiana.

The clipper that has dumped snow over vast portions of the state will begin to occlude and weaken. As this happens, the speed of the system will slow down for a bit with it’s center positioned over Central Michigan before getting ejected out.

Models are in fair agreement that a wave of snow will be pushing into the southern portion of the state after midnight tonight, especially south of I-74/I-70 corridor. Not much accumulation result, but expect a light dusting to an inch. Southern Crawfordsville and at least the northern 3/4ths of Vincennes will get on this action first around or slightly after Midnight.

By around 4-5am, Southern Greenfield and most if not all of Seymour district could see this band of snow moving in with similar accumulations from a dusting to upwards of an inch in localized areas. Around this time, Crawfordsville and Vincennes districts will see snow winding down.

By around noon most if not all the snow should be out of Greenfield and Seymour districts. Now comes the second wave that will be affecting northern portions of the state. As low begins to get ejected out of the Great Lakes, A weak deformation band will be sweeping through the northern third of the state. Not much forcing is associated with this as the cyclone will continue to lose its strength but there is enough that a dusting to an inch could be expected for La Porte, Fort Wayne, and northern portions of Crawfordsville & Greenfield Districts. Northwest Indiana should see this light snow coming through the area by around 3-4PM with Northeast Indiana seeing light snow by around 5-6pm. Snow should end by the overnight hours 2-3am with just in time to prepare for the next weather system.

There is another clipper we have to monitor which could warrant a winter weather advisory by the NWS. The system, called a Manitoba Mauler as it develops around Manitoba, Canada, will be diving down into the upper Midwest by midnight Saturday and will reach the Lafayette area by the late afternoon/early evening hours. The snow should be out of here by the overnight hours into Sunday. Total accumulation with this system could be in the range of 2-4 with isolated 5 inch amounts not out of the question over portions of the state. This will be a very high ratio snowfall between 20-24:1 making snow very fluffy and easy to stack up.

Looking further out into the next 7 to 10 days, it appears that we will continue to stay in this weather pattern where we will see an up and down roller coaster with some small warm ups followed by cool downs and weak snow systems. The European weather model shows another few clippers one on Tuesday, Thursday, and Saturday next week. There is also a hint that we could have below average temperatures towards the end of January and beginning of February. This will prevent any accumulated snow from melting. No 10+ inch snowfall events, but mother nature and its winter sure has us under a tight grip.