9/26 Long-Range Brian Harvey

Forecast updated 5:00pm EDT - 26 Sep 2011

This is the 1800Z Thursday forecast map of the 1200Z run of the gfshd today. A cold front associated with precipitation in the Midwest today has progressed to the East Coast. A secondary cold front is sweeping through the Great Lakes and Midwest regions bringing more precip and even cooler temepratures. Elsewhere, there is not too much going on aside from the ridge building in the West raising temperatures there.

By 1800Z Friday, the secondary cold front reaches the East Coast and the colder temperatures flow into the Midwest. The cut-off low that has been plaguing the Midwest with rain is finally moving out. In the West, the ridge continues to build and temperatures are forecasted to increase. According to NHC, Hilary is forecasted to be downgraded to a tropical storm by this time as depicted on the map.

By midday Saturday, the cold front has moved off the East Coast and high pressure is settling in behind. The ridge in the West has begun to move eastward and with it warmer temperatures. Tropical Storm Hilary (or possibly depression) is starting to make landfall in Baja California. The NHC has this track further west but there is fairly large uncertainty associated with its track at this point.

Sunday 1800Z, the low hangs around the Northeast prolonging precip in the area. The Midwest has nice weather with clear skies and temperature warming. The ridge begins to flatten with another cold front coming down out of Canada. Rain begins to affect the West with a new system moving into the area and the remnants of Hilary move into Mexico.

By early next week, the new system moves further east and with it some precip. The Midwest coninues to experience great weather with high pressure still in place. The low in the Northeast still hangs around somewhat but precip seems to be limited. Hilary completely dissapates and does not give any drought relief to Texas.

today's long-range forecast graphic was produced by Brian Harvey