Long Range 10/24 Brian Harvey
Forecast updated 7:00pm EDT - 24 Oct 2011
The first graphic to look at is the 18Z forecast hour on Thursday from the 18Z run of the GFSHD. A low pressure system in the Norhteast is associated with widespread precipitation along with a cold front that trails back into Texas. Precip will accompany this cold front as well as cold temepratures behind the front. It cannot be seen on this map but Hurricane Rina should be located just off the Eastern Coast of the Yucatan.
Moving forward 24 hours to the 18Z forecast hour on Friday, the cold front quickly pushes off the East Coast and the colder temps behind settle further into the country. Some precip associated with Rina can be seen west of Cuba, however this system is already supposed to be weakening after making landfall near Cancun. Elsewhere, high pressure dominates with cold but dry weather.
By 18Z on Saturday, the high in the middle of the country moves slightly northeast and warmer temperatures in the West flow in from the Gulf. Rina is still located near Cuba and is possibly still a hurricane. The system off the East Coast stalls and there is a possibility of a fairly strong Northeast storm, however the GFS does not show this as much as other models. Regarless, lingering precip will be likely in the Northeast this weekend.
Further out, there is not much model agreement especially on the storm possible in the Northeast. The GFS shows the storm simply moving off the East Coast without much impact, however the ECMWF shows a significant noreaster centered near Long Island by the weekend. It is hard to say which will come true this far out, but it will be interesting to see how this pattern plays out. For the rest of the country Sunday there is not too much change from Saturday. By Monday, a low pressure system sweeps south from Canada bringing precip to the Great Lakes.
today's long-range forecast graphic was produced by Brian Harvey