Long Range Forecast valid 10-19 Chris Ward

Forecast Updated 3:45 PM EDT - 19 October 2011

As the low pressure system moves off into Canada, the new story for the remainder of the week is the dominant high pressure system building over much of the Eastern US. A weak cold front extends from the Great Lakes down the upper Mississippi River Valley, bringing temperatures down into the lower 60's for much of the northern half of the US. A weak frontal system will also bring rain in the forecast for the Northwest and continue to push east to be a factor later in the week.

(Friday night into Saturday outlook)

Sunday could bring a very slight chance of rain for the Midwest associated with a weak cold front moving in, but any rain from this front will be sporadic since lower level moisture support is not evident. The cold front will continue to track east across the US, as a new pattern sets up. The high pressure over Texas is going to pull in moisture and advect warm air into the Great Plains bringing temps back into the mid-to-upper 70's even into the 80's and provide warming for the Midwest with highs near 70 from Sunday into Monday.

(Monday Forecast: Slight risk for rain associated with the cold front moving east as a new system moves in and warm temperatures build in from the Gulf)

The pattern sets up nicely for Tuesday when a new trough moves in and greatly increases the chances of precipitation for the rest of the week just north of the Ohio River Valley with a low pressure system over Minnesota and possibly in Kansas providing the forcing needed for a better opportunity for precipitation.

(Tuesday Morning Outlook: Warm temperatures and moisture from the Gulf are going to fuel the development of the next rain producer)

Today's long range graphic was produced by Chris Ward.