September 28 long term outlook

These images show the propagation of an area of warm air advection at the 850 mb level. The images are taken at SUN 12Z, MON 6Z, MON 18Z, TUE 6Z. Formation of a trough at the 850 mb level leading to WAA on the east side of the trough. The area of WAA propagates from the gulf shore on Sunday up to the Appalacians by Monday Night. This area of lower level WAA is associated with a surface low and precipitation indicated with the by the model (last image).