Short term outlook 11/28/12

Over the next couple of days we can expect to see some warmer air advected into our area. The included maps show NAM forecasted temperatures, wind, and heights at the 850mb level for 12Z for today (the model initialization), tomorrow and Friday. Winds change to be from the southwest advecting warmer air into the area. You can see the 850mb temperature here in West Lafayette change from ~ -5 to ~1 to ~4 (degrees Celsius) from today to tomorrow to Friday.

We can expect a significant warmup from this morning to tomorrow and Friday. In addition to the warm air advection (WAA). Skies should also be clear which will also allow for warmer daytime temperatures. Highs for tomorrow for the state of Indiana could reach well into the 50's and even lower 60's on Friday in southern Indiana. This is a really nice warmup given the snow recieved Monday night and that Tuesday's (yesterday's) high in Lafayette was only 36.

Models have been inconsistent on whether or not there will be enough other factors than WAA present to force precipitation Friday. Flow is pretty much zonal at 500mb, but there is a low amplitude wave with a weak vort max expected to propagate through on Friday. There may also be upper level divergence Friday afternoon as the jet evolves; however, chances for precip across the state still look to be very low.