27 Sept KPNS forecast

Post date: Sep 27, 2012 7:26:24 PM

I'd like to introduce you all to a new acronym to briefly characterize today's forecast: "SSDD" which is short for: "Same Story, DIfferent Day" Not much is changing or is expected to change between today and tomorrow at Pensacola, the surface ridge to their north/east continues to weaken, some afternoon cu has developed as temps moved into the upper 80's after a morning low of 70 with light winds. I expect very similar numbers tomorrow, consistent with current guidance and NWS values. Precip chances remain low, but not zero, NAM continues to predict CAPE values exceeding 1000 J/kg with a bit more moisture in the mid-levels than the past couple of days. I would say the probability of precip is ~25%. Given this, I expect a bit more spread in forecast values as those who are expecting some precip will go with slightly lower max temps than those going with zero precip, although min temp and wind forecasts will likely be tightly clustered around persistence/guidance values.

What's more interesting is the longer-range forecast, the models are predicting a slow-moving system that will tap into the deep tropical moisture currently in place in the western Gulf, check out the 12Z Purdue WRF loop for the early part of that evolution and the 12Z GFS run for a longer-range look. The GFS actually cuts off the system and then brings it north over Indiana later next week. HPC is hitting our favorite Wxchallenge city pretty hard in their QPF, here's the 4-5 day forecast with 3.69" bullseye right over KPNS! Next week's forecasts could be very interesting.