16 FEB Long Range

Forecast updated 4:21pm EST - 16 FEB 2011

For Central Indiana, the next significant chance of measurable precipitation is expected

Sunday as a system moves across the South Western and Western U.S. and develops as it moves into the Midwest. This system will continue into Monday evening and move out of the area by Tuesday evening.

Strong uplift is seen by the 700mb height omega map and is expected to move across the Midwest

as the system contiues to the East bringing a reinforcing shot of warm air advection and warmer temperatures after the cool down from Friday evening into Saturday. This system can be seen to develop over our area from Sunday morning into Monday evening when the forcings come back into equilibrium.

The third map shows the 3 day total rainfall on Tuesday of next week. With this much rainfall and warm temperatures the possibility for flooding is very real. Low lying areas and flood prone zones need to take precautionary measures next week to help prevent loss of property.

The weather graphic below indicates conditions predicted by the GFS modelat 1pm Sunday 20 Feb 2011. Yellow contours show sea level pressure, dashed contours indicate 1000-500mb thickness, and the color fills indicate 12h precipitation amount in inches.

The second image shows the omega forcing at the 700mb level with relative humidity and heights.

The final image is the three day rainfall total forecast as of today for Tuesday at 1am.

today's long-range forecast graphic was produced by Talon Atwell and Brittany Davila