Van Demchak - Current Analysis

Current Analysis - valid 1pm EST 8 March 2011

A developing cyclone is bringing heavy amounts of rainfall to the Midwest over the next day. Current radar imagery shows a developing comma shape with the head located over eastern Missouri and the cold front extending through Oklahoma and Texas. The GFS 211 6-hour precipitation map shows a maximum of precipitation in Arkansas with a large core extending up into Missouri and Illinois along the movement of the cold front. Warm air advection behind the warm front will be a driving force behind rising motion as this cyclone moves eastward into Ohio River Valley and Great Lakes. The third image below shows a core of warm air advection located over Illinois at 00Z tonight, which corresponds to its current location over Missouri. This maximum has a value of about 10 x 10-15 K/s. The fourth map was used for a by-hand calculation of temperature advection. A value of 2.85 x 10-4 K/s which equals about 25 K/day.