17 Feb Short Range

Forecast updated 1:00pm EST - 17 Feb 2011

The main focus of the short term forecast revolves around the chance for rain on Thursday night into Friday morning and the temperatures that will result after the passage of the cold front.

For the possible chance for precipitation most of the forcing will be resultant from warm air advection in the area shown in the first figure below. A maximum of warm air advection will be located in southern Illinois and will progress over Indiana between 0Z and 6Z Friday. Without the presence of positive vorticity advection the area the main support for precipitation will come from this temperature advection. In the second figure shows the 12Z Feb 17 NAM model output for the 6hr precipitation at 12Z Friday, forecast hour 24. There will be light precipitation throughout the area, limited by a significant dry layer at the mid-levels. Precipitation chances are low (around 30-40%) and if there is accumulation it will be in the 0.01 to 0.02 range.

Tempeartures after Friday will begin to decrease as cold air advection will follow the passage of the cold front. Temperatures will drop down in the low 50-s or high 40s for Saturday and Sunday. More information about the weekend is covered in the Long Term forecast product.

today's short-range forecast graphic was produced by Brittany Herrholtz and Kevin Van Leer