10JAN_Verification

Forecast verification updated 3:30pm EST - 10 Jan 2011

The 1000-500 mb thickness and 12-hour precipitation totals valid 12Z on

10 January 2011. Image 1 is a 60-hour forecast from the GFS211, and image

2 is a 36-hour forecast from the same model. Image 3 is the real-time radar

image at 12Z on 10 January 2011, with 1000-500 mb thickness. The three

images are meant to show the discrepancies amongst the 2-day and 1-day

forecast to the actual observations. Although the two forecasts are in fair

agreement with the location and intensity of the precipitation, the locations

do not agree with the observed area of precipitation indicated on the radar.

There was heavy precipitation recorded in Mississippi and Alabama, but the

system seems to have moved east faster than the models anticipated.

today's forecast verification graphic was produced by Lacey Rhudy and Aaron Hurley

Image 1

Image 2

Image 3