17 February Verification

Forecast verification updated 2:00pm EST - 17 Feb 2011

Yesterday brought the warmest temperatures of the year with it to our state. This was welcomed after having negative temperatures only a week ago but there were some major discrepancies in the models and our actual high temperatures across the state. Figure 1 below shows high temperatures across Indiana with most of the state in the high 50s and 60s but some southern areas just reached into the low 70s. Indianapolis topped out at 65 degrees yesterday afternoon making for a very enjoyable day. Figures 2 and 3 show temperature advection at the surface with the gfs model and the ruc model, respectively. The gfs run was the 00Z run on February 16th for 18 hours out and the ruc run was the 1800 run for the same time. It is very interesting to note how the gfs greatly under forecasted the high temperatures in the area when compared to this later ruc run. This discrepancy could be due to many reasons but likely it under forecasted because of melting snow throughout most of the state and the run likely took this too far into consideration in bringing down maximum temperatures. Finally, Figure 4 is a map from the University of Illinois showing more specifically average temperatures throughout Indiana yesterday.

Verification created by Johnny Martin and Lacey Rhudy

Figure 1

Figure 2

Figure 3

Figure 4