18 January Verification

Forecast verification updated 1:00pm EST - 18 Jan 2011

Today's verification shows the 12-hr Precip models from the 17,18 January run of the GFS. Image 1 is 17 Jan 12Z, 2 is 18 Jan 0Z, 3 is 18 Jan 12Z, and the final image is the nexrad radar at 12Z Jan 18. Models were in general agreement over these 3 model runs, only small variations in between. Rain shield off the east coast was brought down in intensity as well as the heavy precip batch in Alabama/Georgia.

today's forecast verification graphic was produced by Erik Larson

17 Jan 12Z GFS211 12-hr Precip Model shows large rain shield over CT and MD areas. Dry sector over Carolinas with another heavier batch of rain in N. Alabama and N. Georgia.

18 Jan 0Z RunLarge shield still present over east coast. Not much change in the model.18 Jan 12Z PrecipRain shield not as organized over east coast. Dry sector has much less moisture than in previous models. Heavy patch in Alabama and Georgia are smaller and further north.12Z 1Km Radar Generated by nmap2Radar shows large rain shield over Washington D.C. area. Rain stretches from Norhtner Michigan down through Arkansas. There is heavier rain embedded in rain over Northwest Tennesse.