Feb 10 Verification

Forecast verification updated 2:00pm EST - 10 Feb 2011

The main verification scheme we are looking at today is the temperatures that were predicted for last night and into this morning (2/20/2011). The first graphic below shows the predicted temperatures of the GFS211 model at 12Z this morning, which was going off of the 12Z run of the model yesterday (2/9/2011). All temperatures in Indiana are in Celcius and the following is conversions of what each temperature would be equivalent to in fahrenheit.

  • -12 C = 10.4 F
  • -15 C = 5 F
  • -18 C = -0.4 F
  • -21 C = -5.8 F

The second image shows the actual surface observations taken at 12Z this morning. The last image displays the temperature differences between the two images. It is shown that temperatures were well below what was predicted to the north, while actually higher in the south. Indiana saw clear skies last night, which should be a clear indicator of cooler temperatures, but this does not explain the positive temperature differences to the south. A possible explanation could be the snow cover to the north and little to no cover in the southern portions of the state. Snow is highly reflective and allows for little conduction taking place at the Earth's surface. This will enhance the cooling that takes place during the night time hours, which would lower temperatures.

today's forecast verification graphic was produced by Matthew Dixon and Meghan Henschen