For the long range forecast, we focused on Wednesday the 22nd at 18Z. The area of strongest precipitation looks to be in Southern Indiana into Western Kentucky. Cold air looks to be pushing in behind this precip, but even for the Purdue area it looks to be too warm for snow. We analyzed vorticity advection at 850, 700, and 500mb. There is strong vorticity advection increasing with height throughout the Great Lakes area and extending south.
The Trenberth form of the omega equation showed positive forcing in the area where we see the precipitation.
We chose to calulate temperature advection. We came up awith .83 degrees C per hour. This incates positive forcing over the area. Below is a plot of temperature advection.