Short Range Forecast

An analysis of the various forcing terms associated with the low pressure system coming from the southern Texas into the lower Mississippi River Valley and tracking northeast through Sunday night.

Trenberth Forcing

At f60 for Sunday 0z from the NAM40 run a vorticity max is located in eastern Texas near the border of Louisiana at 700mb. The thermal wind is calculated between 1000 and 500 mb and depicted by the wind barbs. The thermal wind flows directly through the vort max advecting higher vorticity into northern Louisiana and southern Arkansas. The vorticity advection progresses the low northeastward throughout Sunday morning and afternoon.


A Q-vector analysis for the same time period starting at f60.