Day 1 severe (Brandt)

The SPC has issued a slight risk of severe thunderstorms for an area spanning from the Eastern half of TX into LA in the south, through OK and KS, and NEward into IA.

There is a mid-level low currently located in the southern portion of the Rockies slowly edging to the east, with an associated vorticity maximum.

Initial thunderstorm development is anticipated late this afternoon across the southern portion of the great plains, with relatively high surface dew points (lower 60s F) and relatively steep mid-level lapse rates (for instance, 8.1 C/km in the 850-500mb layer from the 12Z sounding at Norman, OK) in combination with good anticipated surface heating providing a very favorable environment for thunderstorm development today.

Many locations are limited in terms of supercell development due to backing wind profiles (see: OUN 12Z sounding)... model soundings suggest slightly more favorable wind profiles toward early evening, but helicity values never get very impressive. Some supercells are possible, but will not have a massive impact.