The current temperature in the forecast area is 65 with dew points in the low 50's and winds out of the southwest at 5kt. The current pattern will change as a moist cold front moves into the area on Saturday.
The front looks to be entering the forecast area around 14Z Saturday bring in los of moisture with it. Expect dew points to be in the upper 50’s. The warm air advection and the moisture advection are the drivers of this system. Highs on Saturday should be in the mid 70’s with a low in the mid 40’s Saturday night. The heaviest precip should start roughly 20Z
Saturday and will remain in the area until 8Z Monday.
The storm really deepens when the southern system links up with the northern system. It is a similar process that we saw with the “perfect storm” of October 1991. Although the 1991 event was with a hurricane and a nor’easter, this phenomenon of joining storms is pretty unique. When the storms join they will deepen. The models show this and along with our previous knowledge of joining storms, this is a safe forecast as of now. Rain fall from Saturday to late Sunday can range from 1-2 inches.
As the storm reaches its peak, it becomes more vertically stacked as most storms of this magnitude due in their mature stage. Also as the storm matures, it really wraps up bringing cooler temperature on the back side of the system. There is a chance of snow in the mountains with this storm becasue of its strong cyclonic flow. Highs for Monday could get down to the mid to upper 40’s which is well below the average of upper 60’s for this time of year.
Once the front pushes off Tuesday night into Wednesday, our temperatures should warm up to the upper 70’s by Friday due to high pressure dominating over the Southeast.