Simpson Virginia Forecasts
Forecast for the Sterling, VA area.
Nowcast: Partly Sunny to Mostly Cloudy conditions over the region right now. Any lingering areas of fog should lift within the next hour. Temperatures are in the high 60's to low 70's. This is just due to how much sunlight has been seen in any one particular area.
Tonight and Saturday: There is a cold front that will be approaching the area. The cloud deck should start to move into western part of the area tonight. Becoming completely overcast by mid day. Shower activity should start in the morning for the Appalachian areas. The front will struggle over the mountains in the morning delaying it somewhat for the Shenandoah Valley. The rain should start to move into the Vally in the early afternoon then progressing eastward. Showers should fill in for the rest of the forecast area by late evening. There shouldn't be any severe weather. There isn't any good forcing to produce severe storms.
Sunday and Monday: The cold front looks to stall out but as it does there is a low pressure system that is coming from the south, up the eastern seaboard. This storm is going to be more of the rain maker. The low pressure system looks to be making it's way into the area in the late morning and early afternoon time frame. However, the models have been keeping this storm system pretty close to the shore, this being said areas closer to the shore will see more of the heavy precipitation. Areas surrounding Morgantown, WV and Elkins, WV should see very minimal shower activity on Sunday. On the other hand areas closer to Washington D.C. could see up to an inch of rain. For Sunday this system will be an all rain even for the area. The system looks to move out of the area late Sunday night, with maybe a lingering shower overnight. However, this isn't the last of the system. All the models are in agreement that this low becomes cut-off. The heights drop to below freezing especially over the Appalachians, there looks to be some more precipitation that makes it way down into West Virginia could be a mix of rain/snow depending on elevation. According to Skew-T's right now. Elevations above 2500ft should experience snow. The precipitation in West Virginia should be in the morning to late afternoon. Over the rest of the region there may be a linger sprinkle or two Monday morning however this system will move up into Canada late Monday night. There will be a pool of cool air that will pull down the high temperature into the 50's during the day.
Tuesday: Tuesday looks dry for most of the area. Still a little on the cool side as well.
Wednesday and Thursday: This is a little tricky, yesterday the models had the precipitation riding along the trough but it was much more south than they have it today and much much slower as well. The GFS has it much higher than it was yesterday at a much quicker pace and the ECMWF is in between yesterday's run and where the GFS in today's run. There is quite a bit more precipitation also in this new run. Right now I would say there is a chance of a shower on Wednesday and possibly on Thursday as well, however, depending on the speed and track of this low over the next couple of model runs will be interesting to see what it does.