Fischer_Boston

Boston Area Forecast

Current Analysis-

Currently, the Boston is area is at 77 degrees with a dew point of 58. Winds are currently at 5 knots out of the southeast, but these are expected to increase to nearly 25 mph. A weak sea-breeze has formed with will keep the temperatures below record-breaking heat. The area is generally partly cloudy. Dry conditions paired with high winds over the area will create an increased risk for fire weather. Red Flag Warnings have been issued over the area.

Synopsis-

Early Tuesday, a Cold front will pass through keeping temperatures low. The positive forcing from the vorticity advection will not be able to initiate showers.No rain is expected due to the dry air that will be in place at the time. Wednesday and Thursday will be dry and close to normal temperatures as the flow returns to generally zonal. Friday rain and cloud cover will return ahead of an upper level trough and extra tropical cyclone. This system will remain to the south and initiate showers and thunderstorms for the rest of the period as low looks nearly stationary for Saturday-Monday. The system moves out of the jet stream and with high pressure over the Atlantic, beings to cutoff over Virginia/North Carolina area.

Now-Tuesday-

Through the afternoon, the sea breeze will keep much of the Boston area below 82, but areas not effected will warm to near 90 degrees. Early Tuesday morning, a dry cold front will pass and cool down the area. Highs Tuesday should be around 75, but partly cloudy skies will remain. The low for Tuesday night will be around 45 degrees.

Wednesday-

It will be much cooler with a high around 58, the skies will continue to clear. It will be less windy as well with the winds around 10 mph from the west. Another cool night with temperatures falling to around 45 degrees.

Thursday-

Dry conditions remain, but a warming trend begins.Warm air advection will cause temperatures to rise to 68 for Thursday. A few clouds are possible in the afternoon. The low will be around 48.

Friday-

The extra tropical cyclone to the south will begin to affect the area. Rain chances will increase to around 30% for Friday . The high for Friday will be around 70. The partly cloudy skies will return as the system pulls warm moist air up from the south. The low will be around 50.

Saturday-

The upper level trough will push through bringing showers. Temperatures will be cooler due to the clouds and rain. High will only be around 55 degrees. The chance of rain is around 40%. The expected low is around 40.

Sunday-

Another cool day is expected as the rain continues. The high will be only 48. The upper level trough will begin to move out, but the extra tropical cyclone will remain over Virginia/North Carolina. Chance of rain will remain around 40%.

Monday-

The extra tropical cyclone finally begins to push north and warmer air moves in. The high will be around 60. The chance of rain will be around 50%.

Verification-

Synoptic Scale-

The expected cold front did move through essentially dry, but it pushed through almost 10 hours later than expected. Which caused forecasted temperatures to be much lower than what actually occurred. The system stalled due to a tropical system moving to the west. This caused the system to not be able to push to the east, and created forecast error. Winds were also higher due to enhanced frontogenesis over the region during the stalled period. This created a larger temperature gradient and increased the lifting along the frontal region. This created more cloud cover, but not precipitation due to the low moisture over the region.

Monday- The high was 87 and the low was 59. There was a trace of precipitation. This is close to my forecast, but the sea breeze did not push as far inland as expected.

Tuesday- The high was 84 and the low was 57. My forecast was very far off from what I expected to happen. Thew cold front stalled to the west of the city, due to an westward tracking tropical low paired with a weakening high pressure off the coast of North Carolina. What I expected to happen was for the high to push out as the cold front and associated low tracked east.

Wednesday-The high on Wednesday was 62 and the low was 49. This is a little higher than I expected but not too far from actual temperature. The average wind speed was around what I expected, but peak wind speed was high, nearly 30 mph from the northwest. I expected the winds to be more westerly.