Hartman_Boston_04162012

Forecast Discussion for Taunton, MA forecast area

CURRENT:

Recent VIS image (1732Z) shows clear skies for the forecast area with some cloudiness/instability directly to the west. Surface temperatures are mild, in the low 70's, with winds from the SSE at about 10 kts. There are no precipitation reports at this time.

SHORT TERM, Apr 16-19:

Looking at the RUC's 16Z (covers Apr 17 to 10Z) run from today, the 500 mb vort map shows a strong max out to the west flowing with the height lines. No, PVA is coming into the forecast area. Furthermore, there is no jet support. Flow is from the SSW. 700 mb RH map shows dry conditions for the area. Moist areas are constricted by the flow, staying NW with the low and SW along the Gulf. High pressure blocking pattern keeps the low from entering at this time.

Moving into the 17th and looking at the NAM, GFS, UKMET, and CMC, we see positive forcing skirting the area to the north. While the 500 and 250 mb maps look to have favorable forcing, the moisture is not there. The both the 700 mb RH map and the 850 mb PW map show low to no existence of available water. Conditions for the 18th show progression of the front; it will pass during the early part of the day and by 18Z. Given the moisture availability, no precip is expected with this front. By the 19th, conditions will mellow with calm winds from the SW and moisture parameters, still dry.

Monday 16th: Low in the low 60's

Tuesday 17th: High in the mid 70's and low in mid 40's

Wednesday 18th: High in the mid 50's with a low in the mid 40's

Thursday 19th: High in the mid 60's with a low in the mid 40's

LONG TERM, Apr 20-22:

Conditions remain similar as the high pressure block persists. A short wave trough begins to amplify late Friday (Sat 00Z), really vamping up the vorticity field. The dry airmass begins to break up mid-day Friday and WAA becomes strong. Wind are directly from the south and precip should initiate mid-day Saturday. Precise timing cannot be determined with confidence as the models do not agree strongly at this time (fhr 108-144).

Friday 20th: High in the low 70's with a low in the mid 50's but will continue to drop on into Saturday.

Saturday 21st: High in the mid 40's with a low in the low 40's. Rain showers expected.

Sunday 22nd: High and low in the low 50's. A rise is temp is expected overnight. Rain showers/storms expected.