Simpson Boston Forecast
This is the forecast for Boston, MA area specifically Taunton, MA. This forecast will cover for Tonight 4/16 through 4/22. Starting with an overview synopsis. There is currently a low pressure system over Northern Michigan this associated with a cold front that has had a history of producing severe weather. However, the storm system looks to be skirting northeast, due to a blocking high in the Atlantic. This should leave the area dry for the next couple of days. The cold front associated with the low will pass through during the day on Tuesday. This will be a dry cold front and will lower temperatures for the day on Wednesday. There isn't a lot of moisture in the area right now which coupled with the mountain range that it has to pass over could be the reason for the lack of moisture associated with this front. There is also a storm system that looks to be approaching for the weekend, however, the models are in disagreement on the timing of this system. The GFS, like usual has the system moving fairly quickly into the area on Saturday with some much needed rain. The ECMWF on the other hand looks to be slowing it down by about a day, my assumption is that the ECMWF is taking into consideration the departing high pressure system and dry conditions. The ECMWF has been the better model of handling the timing of storm systems. I would predict the storms system moving in sometime Saturday night and some precipitation to start on Sunday.
Monday Night: Low Temperature in the mid to upper 50's.
Tuesday: High Temperature to be similar to what was seen today with high's in the low to mid 80's. The dry cold front will move through the area during the evening and overnight hours.
Wednesday: The effects of the cold front will be felt with high temperatures in the low 60's. This however, is still above the normal temperature for this time of year. Dry conditions to persist.
Thursday: Temperatures warming slightly in the area, with high temperatures in the mid 60's. Dry conditions.
Friday: Mild temperatures returning for Friday with high temperatures in the low 70's. Dry conditions.
Saturday: Clouds should start to make their way into the area, however, it should remain dry. I would suspect that the shower activity should hold off till night time.
Sunday: Mostly Cloudy and some showers in the region for Sunday with temperatures in the low 60's.
Verification/ Forecast Update: The forecast up until today has been very accurate. The area indeed did experience a dry cold front which knocked down high temperatures into the 60's. Also no precipitation was experienced during the forecast up until today, this was also specified. Looking at the models both from Monday the 16th at 12UTC and today's run the ECMWF has stayed pretty consistant over the timing of the front being Saturday night. And the GFS has slowed down and is more in line to what the ECMWF is saying. As of right not the line of showers and storms looks to be moving into the area at about 00UTC on the 22nd so Saturday Night. I am more confident in saying that the storms should hold off for most of Saturday, however with the winds backing to the south during the day on Saturday, I would suspect that the area should be under a staraform layer of clouds for most of the day.