Dec 7 forecast discussion

Post date: Dec 7, 2015 3:32:40 PM

we are expecting an extended period of warm weather for this week, with no wintry weather expected. the main forecast issue continues to be the development of dense fog, with the warm air aloft causing an inversion, this often results in stagnant air near the surface and results in fog development during the morning and stratocu during the afternoon. temperatures often end up much cooler than expected during these events. I think the NAM (and especially the WRF) have had a better handle on this lately when compared to the GFS or Euro.

Monday: dense morning fog will likely lead to overcast conditions through most of the day, with temperatures remaining in the 30s for most of the day

Monday night: WRF and NAM are indicating dense fog will develop quickly after sunset. surface temperatures are predicted to remain above freezing, so freezing fog is not expected to be an issue, although elevated surfaces will cool faster and might result in some freezing conditions on bridges and overpasses

Tuesday: winds are predicted to increase out of the south/southwest which should help to mix out the fog and low stratus, but the models have had a difficult time dealing with this, so we will need to keep a close eye on the cloudiness, more clouds will result in cooler max temps than guidance is showing

Wednesday: upper-level/surface low pressure system moves through from the west bringing some light rain across most of the state, mainly during the daytime hours. temperatures are predicted to be well above freezing, so no winter weather issues are expected

Thursday: southerly flow is predicted to pick up again, main forecast issue will be morning fog development following Wednesday's precip. a weak cold front is predicted to move through Thurs night on the Euro

Friday: a weak ridge is predicted Friday morning, followed by a surge of moisture. morning fog/stratus will continue to be a forecast question for Friday

Saturday/Sunday: uncertainty is large at this range. Euro shows a strong storm/cold front moving through in the Sunday-Monday timeframe, while GFS brings that through on Saturday-Sunday. will probably see max temperatures near record territory on the warm side of this system, also may see a severe weather outbreak in the warm sector of this low. might have some light snow in the wake of this strong cold front, too much uncertainty at this point to have any confidence in that forecast.

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